TRACK RECORD
WAS IT RIGHT?
Every verdict is sealed on Concordium before the outcome and graded after it. riskScore/100 is the forecast P(rug); a rug is liquidity down more than 99%, no trades left, the labels of arXiv:2608.20271, or a pool under 1% of market cap.
horizon
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00
Brier score
0 is perfect · — = always the base rate
00
skill vs base rate
needs rugs and non-rugs
00
base rate
share that rugged
00
graded
0 of 0 verdicts · 0 waiting
00
log score
lower is better
00
at 50% · precision / recall
RELIABILITY · JUDGE · —
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SPECIALISTS · — · BEST BRIER FIRST
no graded calls yet
a white Brier beats the judge at this horizon
GRADED VERDICTS · LATEST FIRST
| called | mint | verdict | p(rug) | grade anchor | record |
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grades are written to the audit contract beside the verdict they grade (grade entrypoint, one per horizon, never edited) · the MCP tool sentinel_track returns this report · 1h grades need the market to have been read at verdict time